Are temporary jobs stepping stones or dead ends? A meta-analytical review of the literature

Design: We present a quantitative systematic review on the debate about the “stepping stone vs. dead end” hypothesis related to the causal effect of temporary jobs on future labour market performances. Purpose: We aim to investigate the heterogeneous results about the impact of temporary jobs on subsequent labour market performances and to provide policy-makers with further information on the effects of temporary contracts under particular circumstances. Findings: Among 78 observations from 64 articles, 32% support the hypothesis according to which temporary contracts are a port of entry into stable employment positions, 23% report ambiguous or mixed findings, and the remaining 45% provide evidence in favor of the dead end hypothesis. The results from meta-regressions suggest that the stepping stone effect is more likely to emerge when self-selectivity issues are dealt with. The studies focusing on temporary work agency jobs and casual/seasonal jobs support more easily the dead end hypothesis. Finally, in more recent years and when the unemployment rate is larger, the dead end hypothesis is more likely to prevail. Originality: Although many studies have been published on this issue, to the best of our knowledge there are no recent analytic economic surveys on the “stepping stone vs. dead end” debate. The main contribution of our article is to fill this gap.