Thresholds of impaired cerebral hemodynamics that predict short-term cognitive decline in asymptomatic carotid stenosis

Subjects with asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS) may be at risk of cognitive impairment due to cerebral hypoperfusion. In this study, we aimed to detect a threshold of cerebral hemodynamics which is able to identify subjects at risk of cognitive deterioration. In subjects with ACS, cerebral vasomotor reactivity (CVR) was assessed with the breath-holding index (BHI) transcranial Doppler-based method. Cognitive deterioration was defined as a decrease in the MMSE score by 2 points after one year. In order to define the threshold of impaired BHI, a ROC curve analysis was performed adopting the binary difference of MMSE score as the outcome and continuous BHI as the testing variable. A total of 548 subjects completed the follow-up. Cognitive deterioration was observed in 119 patients (21.7%). The BHI value ipsilateral to the stenosis was the strongest predictor of cognitive deterioration among the variables tested. The best cut-point to discriminate between normal and abnormal BHI resulted 0.89. The post-test probability of cognitive deterioration for an abnormal BHI was 44%, while a normal BHI showed a post-test probability of 9% for the same outcome. The present investigation provides a threshold of reduced CVR that can be useful to identify subjects with ACS at risk of cognitive deterioration.