Organic farming in Europe by 2010: Scenarios for the Future

This report is part of the EU project “Effects of the CAP reform and possible further developments on organic farming in the EU”. Its specific aim is to develop consistent scenarios of the possible future developments of organic farming in the EU, in order to provide a range of possible policy options. The scarcity of statistical data, especially in time series format, has prevented the use of traditional forecasting methods. Qualitative information has been used to integrate missing data, and to develop a scenario approach that uses linguistic variables whose interactions are analysed through fuzzy systems rules. The information used in this analysis is mainly derived by expert assessment and is generated through interactive brainstorming procedures that have involved all the project’s partners in an iterative process, covering almost all the three years of the project period. Our scenarios are aimed at both policy makers and the private sector, and may be used as a “wind tunnel” for evaluating specific projects and investments in the organic sector: one of the uses of our scenarios has been to provide assumptions for computer-aided sector modelling by other teams participating in the project. In a similar way, our scenarios may be used as “test beds” to evaluate the viability of specific policies or business strategies, as well as a starting point for the design and development of new strategies and/or policies.