Expected foreign military intervention and demand for state-building: Evidence from Mali

We study how the announcement of a foreign military intervention, which improves expectations about the state’s future functioning, can raise citizens’ willingness to participate in state-building processes. We analyze the impact of the 2012 United Nations Security Council resolution that authorized intervention in Mali to reunify the country and restore democracy during a profound institutional crisis on individuals’ attitudes toward the state. By exploiting the randomness of the foreign intervention announcement relative to the timeline of the Afrobarometer interviews conducted in South Mali, we document that individuals interviewed in the days after the announcement report more optimistic beliefs about the country’s future level of democracy than individuals interviewed immediately before, with the same characteristics, region, and ethnic group. Consistent with a prospective-beliefs channel, respondents interviewed after the announcement report higher tax morale and more favorable tax-related attitudes across a broad range of outcomes. While optimism about future democracy increases widely, the increase in tax morale appears concentrated in areas with low state capacity, limited ethnic diversity, and individuals who do not perceive discrimination against their ethnic group. Our results indicate that foreign military interventions can enhance perceptions of state-building and the benefits of participation.