A Preliminary Analysis of the 2025 US Tariffs and Their Impact on EU and Italian Firms

This paper analyses the 2025 US tariff measures and their implications for the European Union (EU), with particular attention to Italian firms. It first reviews the goals of the United States (US) administration - re-industrialization, deficit reduction, and revenue generation - and the criticisms that highlight the limited effectiveness and significant costs of policies based on tariffs. The study then examines the macroeconomic and sectoral effects on EU economies, documenting expected declines in output, worsening terms of trade, and strong impacts on industries such as pharmaceuticals, transport equipment, and basic metals. A country-level assessment shows differentiated vulnerabilities across Germany, Italy, France, and Ireland. The paper also discusses EU policy options, emphasizing the need for strategic restraint, targeted support, and market diversification, and outlines the strategic adjustments that EU firms are undertaking to enhance resilience. Finally, the Italian case is explored, presenting possible future scenarios characterized by both heightened trade tensions and emerging opportunities in global markets.