The impact of EU policy response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the Italian agri-food sector

This study examines the European Union's (EU) policy response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, which has affected trade with Russia and Ukraine across various sectors. The research employs a constrained nonlinear programming model, based on a multi-regional input-output table of the Italian economy, to compute and analyse direct and indirect impacts, particularly in the agri-food sector. Alternative policy responses, including deeper EU-Ukraine integration and further trade collapse, are simulated to validate the results. The findings suggest a minor overall impact on the agri-food sector, especially in Southern Italy, unless extreme measures are implemented. The evidence challenges protectionist calls and highlight the need for targeted, data-driven policy interventions to support the most vulnerable areas and enhance long-term resilience.