The dynamics of circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) during treatment reflects tumour response in advanced melanoma patients

Despite the introduction of targeted (BRAFi/MEKi) and immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) has significantly reduced the recurrence rate and improved the overall survival (OS) of patients with Stage III and IV melanoma, only a percentage will benefit of durable disease control. The aim of this study was to examine whether the levels of circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) in plasma of advanced melanoma patients undergoing BRAFi/MEKi or ICIs vary according to the patients' survival outcomes (i.e. progression-free survival (PFS) and OS) and disease progression. Plasma samples of Stage III-IV melanoma patients were collected at baseline (treatment initiation) and thereafter every 3 months. Circulating BRAFV600E/K and NRASQ61R/K mutations were analysed through droplet digital PCR (ddPCR, Bio-Rad) in a total of 177 plasma samples from 48 melanoma patients (19 Stage III, 29 Stage IV). Baseline ctDNA concentration was significantly associated with OS (HR = 1.003, 95% CI = 1.000–1.006, p = 0.043) and PFS (HR = 1.004, 95% CI = 1.000–1.007, p = 0.029) independent of clinical-prognostic confounders. For each unit increase in the ∆ctDNA (concentration difference between the last follow-up and baseline) there was a 24% increased risk of disease progression, irrespective of treatment type and stage at diagnosis (OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.03–1.49, p = 0.020, AUC = 0.93). Patients with reduction of ctDNA level from baseline to the last follow-up had longer OS (HR = 0.14; 95% CI = 0.05–0.44, p = 0.001) and PFS (HR = 0.08; 95% CI = 0.03–0.27, p < 0.0001) compared to patients with increased ctDNA, including adjustment for confounding factors. Our findings suggest that variation of ctDNA over time during melanoma treatment reflects the clinical outcome and tumour response to therapy and might be helpful in clinical monitoring.