Punishing or rallying ‘round the flag? Heterogeneous effects of terrorism in South Tyrol

This paper studies the electoral effects of terrorism by examining a rich panel dataset on the South Tyrolean case. A Northern and predominantly German-speaking region of Italy, South Tyrol was the theater of a long war of attrition fought between the majority language group and the Italian state for autonomy and independence. Using detailed information on the whole record of 337 terrorist attacks occurring between 1956 and 1991, I find that (i) low-scale terror or attacks which targeted police forces negatively affected incumbent support; (ii) high-scale terror or attacks which targeted civilians or caused deaths were conducive of rally-round-the-Italian-flag momenta; (iii) support to terrorists sensibly drops after deadly attacks. These findings highlight the role of terror intensity and violence in driving the impact of terrorism on incumbent actors and terrorist organizations and help reconcile the coexistence of seemingly contradictory effects of terrorism documented in the literature.