A prediction model for top-down cracking in asphalt pavements with open-graded friction course

Thick asphalt pavements with open-graded friction course (OGFC) are subjected to top-down cracking (TDC), a distress consisting of cracks that initiate on the pavement surface close to the wheelpath and propagate downwards. However, road agencies do not yet have adequate tools to predict TDC. The objective of this study was to develop a practical and reliable model to predict TDC depth evolution in such pavements. The proposed model provides a maximum TDC depth that can potentially occur in a pavement characterized by certain mechanical properties and traffic at the time of interest. The model was calibrated and validated considering several Italian motorway pavements affected by TDC based on limited data, therefore more data should be collected in the future. This model can be used in a pavement management system (PMS) to plan timely surface maintenance against TDC.