Endometrial Cancer Individualised Scoring System (ECISS): A machine learning-based prediction model of endometrial cancer prognosis

Objective: Establishing a prognostic model for endometrial cancer (EC), that individualizes risk and management plan per patient and disease characteristics. Methods: this is multicentre retrospective study conducted in 9 European gynaecologic cancer centres. Women with confirmed EC between January 2008 to December 2015 were included. Demographics, disease characteristics, management, and follow-up information were collected. Cancer-specific survival (CSS) and disease-free survival (DFS) at 3 and 5 years comprise the primary outcomes of the study. Machine learning algorithms were applied to patient and disease characteristics. Model I: pre-treatment model. Calculated probability was added to management variables (model II: treatment model), and the second calculated probability was added to perioperative and postoperative variables (model III). Results: Out of 1,150 women, 1,144 were eligible for 3-year survival analysis and 860 for 5-year survival analysis. Model I, II, and III accuracies of prediction of 5-year CSS were 84.88%/85.47% (in train and test sets), 85.47%/84.88% and 87.35%/86.05%, respectively. Model I predicted 3-year CSS at an accuracy of 91.34%/87.02%. Accuracy of model I, II and III in predicting 5-year DFS were 74.63%/76.72%, 77.03%/76.72%, and 80.61%/77.78%, respectively. Conclusion: Endometrial Cancer Individualised Scoring System (ECISS) is a novel machine learning tool assessing patient-specific survival probability with high accuracy.