ECONOMIC GROWTH, SCIENTIFIC PROGRESS, AND THE LIFE EXPECTANCY INCREASE

This paper is about the evidence of the long run increase of life expectancy, and its relationship with the process of economic growth. The spirit in mainly empiric, but part of the empirical analysis is based on a simple model. The analysis proceeds through several steps, providing different new results, two of which are worth highlighting. First, it is considered an implicit elasticity of life expectancy to income “at the frontier”; this long-term elasticity is necessarily decreasing and a measure is provided, suggesting that it may represent a decrease in the incentive for economic growth. Second, through econometric estimations, the impact of the determinants of life expectancy is provided, distinguishing between “transitional” and “permanent” determinants. The latter is identified by scientific advancements (in medicine-related fields), and the result suggests their impact on life expectancy still appears sustained and not diminishing.