We conduct an extensive sign-and-significance meta-regression analysis of counterfactual programme evaluations from Italy, considering both published and grey literature on policies supporting firms’ investments. We specify a multilevel model for the probability of finding positive effect estimates, also assessing correlation possibly induced by co-authorship networks. We find that the probability of positive effects is considerable, especially for weaker firms and outcomes that are directly targeted by public programmes. However, these policies are less likely to trigger change in the long run.
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