A combination of high infant immunization coverage and surveillance of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases, plays a critical role in polio eradication. This study aimed to estimate the incidence of AFP, to evaluate the completeness of AFP ascertainment during the years, age groups and gender, and to define the main associated diagnosis among children aged under 15 in the Marches region of Italy. Analysis was performed on data from the active AFP surveillance system and the hospital discharge records in the 2006–2014 period. The two-source capture-recapture method was applied. After cross-validation, 30 AFP compatible conditions as defined by the WHO were identified, with an incidence estimate of 1.91 cases of AFP per 100,000 children under 15 years (95% CI = 1.4–2.6/100,000). Guillain–Barrè syndrome was the most common diagnosis. A significant difference (p < 0.05) has been registered in the estimated probability of case ascertainment in females. The reasons for the lower reporting of cases in females are unknown. Specific research and the implementation of a more sensitive surveillance system are essential in verifying potential inequalities and to succeed in the polio eradication initiative. Keywords: acute flaccid paralysis; poliomyelitis; s
Two-Source Capture-Recapture Method to Estimate the Incidence of Acute Flaccid Paralysis in the Marches Region (Italy) / Barbadoro, Pamela; Luciani, Aurora; Ciotti, Matteo; D'Errico, Marcello Mario; on behalf of the AFP Working Collaboratove Group, And; Marigliano, Anna; D'Alleva, Antonella; Recanatini, Claudia; DI VINCENZO, Marina; Dolcini, Jacopo; Napolitano, LARA RITA; DI BUONO, VALERIO PASQUALE; Lombardi, Marco. - In: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH. - ISSN 1660-4601. - 17:24(2020), pp. 1-8. [10.3390/ijerph17249400]
Two-Source Capture-Recapture Method to Estimate the Incidence of Acute Flaccid Paralysis in the Marches Region (Italy)
Pamela Barbadoro
Primo
Conceptualization
;Aurora LucianiFormal Analysis
;Marcello Mario D’ErricoUltimo
Supervision
;Anna MariglianoMembro del Collaboration Group
;Antonella D’AllevaMembro del Collaboration Group
;Claudia RecanatiniMembro del Collaboration Group
;Marina Di VincenzoMembro del Collaboration Group
;Jacopo DolciniMembro del Collaboration Group
;Lara Rita NapolitanoMembro del Collaboration Group
;Valerio Pasquale Di BuonoMembro del Collaboration Group
;
2020-01-01
Abstract
A combination of high infant immunization coverage and surveillance of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases, plays a critical role in polio eradication. This study aimed to estimate the incidence of AFP, to evaluate the completeness of AFP ascertainment during the years, age groups and gender, and to define the main associated diagnosis among children aged under 15 in the Marches region of Italy. Analysis was performed on data from the active AFP surveillance system and the hospital discharge records in the 2006–2014 period. The two-source capture-recapture method was applied. After cross-validation, 30 AFP compatible conditions as defined by the WHO were identified, with an incidence estimate of 1.91 cases of AFP per 100,000 children under 15 years (95% CI = 1.4–2.6/100,000). Guillain–Barrè syndrome was the most common diagnosis. A significant difference (p < 0.05) has been registered in the estimated probability of case ascertainment in females. The reasons for the lower reporting of cases in females are unknown. Specific research and the implementation of a more sensitive surveillance system are essential in verifying potential inequalities and to succeed in the polio eradication initiative. Keywords: acute flaccid paralysis; poliomyelitis; sI documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
