Assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of agricultural land to water and nitrogen losses via deterministic approach and regression analysis

A set of indices was developed in order to classify the vulnerability of agricultural land to water and nitrogen losses (LOS), setting a basis for the integrated water resources management in agricultural systems. To calibrate the indices using multiple regression analysis, the simulation results of Groundwater Loading Effects of Agricultural Management Systems (GLEAMS) model for combinations of different soil properties, topography, and climatic conditions of a reference field crop were used as "observed values." GLEAMS quantified (1) the annual losses of the percolated water beneath the root zone, (2) the annual losses of the surface runoff, (3) the annual losses of the nitrogen leaching beneath the root zone, and (4) the annual losses of nitrogen through the surface runoff, which were used to calibrate the following indices LOSW-P, LOSW-R, LOSN-PN, and LOSN-RN, respectively. All the simulations to gain the LOS indices were carried out for the same reference field crop, the same nitrogen fertilization, and the same irrigation practice, in order to obtain the intrinsic vulnerability of agricultural land to water and nitrogen losses. The LOS indices were also combined to derive nitrogen concentrations in the percolated and in the runoff water. Finally, the connection of LOS indices with the groundwater was performed using an additional equation, which determines the minimum transit time of the percolated water to reach the groundwater table.