In the last thirty years, migrant remittances have become a stable source of external finance for developing countries. In this paper, we investigate whether aggregate persistence can be traced back to individual remitting behaviour, as a result of migrants’ intertemporal choices. We propose a dynamic random-effects double hurdle model based on micro data from the German Socio-Economic Panel dataset. Our results show that there is significant state dependence in remitting behaviour, but in steady-state neither the probability to remit nor the transferred amounts are particularly large, thus suggesting that long-term intertemporal planning is rather sporadic. On these grounds, the medium-long term counterbalancing effect of remittances on the brain drain appears to be weak.

A dynamic double hurdle model for remittances: evidence from Germany / Bettin, Giulia; Lucchetti, Riccardo; Pigini, Claudia. - In: ECONOMIC MODELLING. - ISSN 0264-9993. - ELETTRONICO. - 73:(2018), pp. 365-377. [10.1016/j.econmod.2018.04.012]

A dynamic double hurdle model for remittances: evidence from Germany

Bettin, Giulia;Lucchetti, Riccardo;Pigini, Claudia
2018-01-01

Abstract

In the last thirty years, migrant remittances have become a stable source of external finance for developing countries. In this paper, we investigate whether aggregate persistence can be traced back to individual remitting behaviour, as a result of migrants’ intertemporal choices. We propose a dynamic random-effects double hurdle model based on micro data from the German Socio-Economic Panel dataset. Our results show that there is significant state dependence in remitting behaviour, but in steady-state neither the probability to remit nor the transferred amounts are particularly large, thus suggesting that long-term intertemporal planning is rather sporadic. On these grounds, the medium-long term counterbalancing effect of remittances on the brain drain appears to be weak.
2018
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11566/259669
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