The maintenance of organic farming production schemes is a theme receiving a growing interest now that there are signs of a slowing in organic farming uptake in Italy. The present study develops a model based on a Bayesian network (BN) that is aimed at investigating the factors that affect the exit of a farm from the organic sector and to simulate the probability of maintaining an organic scheme for different farm types. The model is based on a database of organic farms, which has been integrated with qualitative information. Farm-type simulation and sensitivity analysis of most of the relevant variables have been carried out. Main results show that arable farm types are those with a higher probability to stay in the organic sector, while farmers' age, Province the farm is situated in and farm size are the factors mostly influencing probability scores.

A Bayesian network to predict the probability of organic farms’ exit from the sector: A case study from Marche, Italy / Gambelli, D.; Bruschi, V.. - In: COMPUTERS AND ELECTRONICS IN AGRICULTURE. - ISSN 0168-1699. - STAMPA. - 71:1(2010), pp. 22-31. [10.1016/j.compag.2009.11.004]

A Bayesian network to predict the probability of organic farms’ exit from the sector: A case study from Marche, Italy

Gambelli, D.
Writing – Original Draft Preparation
;
Bruschi, V.
Data Curation
2010-01-01

Abstract

The maintenance of organic farming production schemes is a theme receiving a growing interest now that there are signs of a slowing in organic farming uptake in Italy. The present study develops a model based on a Bayesian network (BN) that is aimed at investigating the factors that affect the exit of a farm from the organic sector and to simulate the probability of maintaining an organic scheme for different farm types. The model is based on a database of organic farms, which has been integrated with qualitative information. Farm-type simulation and sensitivity analysis of most of the relevant variables have been carried out. Main results show that arable farm types are those with a higher probability to stay in the organic sector, while farmers' age, Province the farm is situated in and farm size are the factors mostly influencing probability scores.
2010
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11566/256932
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