Recent catastrophic floods in Viet Nam have been increasingly linked to land use and forest cover changes in the uplands since the severe flood occurred in Central Viet Nam in November 1999. Despite the doubts that many scientists have expressed on such nexus, this common perception prompted both positive forest protection/reforestation programs, and often-unwarranted blame on upland communities for their forest management practices. This study discusses the disparity between public perceptions and scientific evidences relating the causes of catastrophic floods. The former was drawn on the results of a questionnaire and focus group discussions surveys with key informants of different mountainous communities, whereas the latter was based on GIS and remote sensing analysis of land cover change, including statistical analysis of hydro-meteorological data of the Huong river basin. The results indicate that there is a gap in the common beliefs and the actual relationship between forest cover change and catastrophic flood. Undeniably the studied areas showed significant changes in land cover over the period 1989 - 2008, yet, these changes appears not to have carried significant role on the levels of catastrophic flood. Seventy-one percent of the variance of catastrophic flood level in the downstream areas was related to variance in rainfall. Evidences from this study showed that the overall increasing trends of catastrophic flooding in the Huong river basin was mainly due to climate variability and to the development of main roads and dyke infrastructures in the lowlands. Hence, forest management policies and programs shaped on the common assumption that forest degradation in the upland is the main cause of catastrophic flood in the downstream areas, should be reassessed to avoid unnecessary strain on upland people.
Catastrophic flood events: climate vs. land use management impacts / Tran, P.; Marincioni, Fausto; Shaw, R.. - STAMPA. - (2009), pp. 64-64. (Intervento presentato al convegno 19 Congresso Nazionale dell’Associazione Italiana di Oceanologia e Limnologia. tenutosi a Venezia nel 22-25/09/2009).
Catastrophic flood events: climate vs. land use management impacts.
MARINCIONI, Fausto;
2009-01-01
Abstract
Recent catastrophic floods in Viet Nam have been increasingly linked to land use and forest cover changes in the uplands since the severe flood occurred in Central Viet Nam in November 1999. Despite the doubts that many scientists have expressed on such nexus, this common perception prompted both positive forest protection/reforestation programs, and often-unwarranted blame on upland communities for their forest management practices. This study discusses the disparity between public perceptions and scientific evidences relating the causes of catastrophic floods. The former was drawn on the results of a questionnaire and focus group discussions surveys with key informants of different mountainous communities, whereas the latter was based on GIS and remote sensing analysis of land cover change, including statistical analysis of hydro-meteorological data of the Huong river basin. The results indicate that there is a gap in the common beliefs and the actual relationship between forest cover change and catastrophic flood. Undeniably the studied areas showed significant changes in land cover over the period 1989 - 2008, yet, these changes appears not to have carried significant role on the levels of catastrophic flood. Seventy-one percent of the variance of catastrophic flood level in the downstream areas was related to variance in rainfall. Evidences from this study showed that the overall increasing trends of catastrophic flooding in the Huong river basin was mainly due to climate variability and to the development of main roads and dyke infrastructures in the lowlands. Hence, forest management policies and programs shaped on the common assumption that forest degradation in the upland is the main cause of catastrophic flood in the downstream areas, should be reassessed to avoid unnecessary strain on upland people.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
