Persistent Low-Skill Traps: A Propensity Score Matching Study on Occupational Mobility of Native and Migrants Workers in Emilia-Romagna, Italy

The study rigorously analyzes the occupational trajectories of foreign- and native-born workers in Italy’s Emilia-Romagna region. Using a comprehensive administrative dataset spanning 2008-2015, we assess patterns of upward professional mobility and empirically test the widely discussed stepping-stone hypothesis by examining job transitions across skill levels. Our empirical findings reveal a persistent and significant disparity. Specifically, foreign workers have a substantially higher probability of remaining in low-skilled occupations, indicating limited upward mobility. We also separately analyze the stability of initial employment and the incidence of subsequent unemployment spells, revealing clear and quantifiable differences between the two cohorts. These results provide robust evidence for the existence of an ethnicity penalty and a low-skill penalty that systematically impede professional advancement within the regional labor market. This form of occupational segregation, differentiated by ethnic origin, is consistent with patterns observed in other Southern European and Asian economies.