The latent shift from monocentric to polycentric settlement models

Investigating processes of change in regional spatial structures is a relevant issue in the identification of monocentric, polycentric and scattered urban models. This work proposes an empirical framework referring to complex systems’ theory and based on a diachronic analysis of the spatial structure of built-up parcels assessing metropolitan transformations. It aims at estimating the level of monocentrism or polycentrism of metropolitan regions under different socioeconomic contexts. The shift from monocentric spatial organizations to more dispersed structures has determined an increase of morphological entropy and fractal dimension of parcels, with a declining importance of the distance from downtown as a factor of urbanization. Our approach includes socioeconomic analysis within a landscape ecology perspective and contributes to understand the relationships between local development and changes in the spatial configuration of metropolitan regions. Hence, it provides an operational base for both supervised and un-supervised classifications of latent patterns and processes of urban expansion.