Information security has become a crucial issue not only from the technical standpoint, but also from the managerial standpoint. The necessity for organizations to understand and manage cyber risk has led to the rise of a plethora of risk assessment methods and tools. These approaches are often difficult to interpret and complex to manage for organizations. In this paper, we propose a simple and quantitative method for the estimation of the likelihood of occurrence of a cyber incident. Our approach uses a generalized logistic function and a cumulative geometric distribution to combine the maturity and the complexity of the technical infrastructure of an organization with its attractiveness towards cyber criminals.

A functional approach to cyber risk assessment

Giulia Rafaiani
;
Massimo Battaglioni
;
Marco Baldi;Franco Chiaraluce;Luca Spalazzi;Giovanni Cancellieri
2021

Abstract

Information security has become a crucial issue not only from the technical standpoint, but also from the managerial standpoint. The necessity for organizations to understand and manage cyber risk has led to the rise of a plethora of risk assessment methods and tools. These approaches are often difficult to interpret and complex to manage for organizations. In this paper, we propose a simple and quantitative method for the estimation of the likelihood of occurrence of a cyber incident. Our approach uses a generalized logistic function and a cumulative geometric distribution to combine the maturity and the complexity of the technical infrastructure of an organization with its attractiveness towards cyber criminals.
978-88-87237-50-4
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11566/292462
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