Uncertainty effects of input data on cost optimal nZEB performance analysis

According to EPBD recast 2010, all European member states have to set their national minimum energy performance requirements with a view to achieve cost-optimal levels following the delegated regulation No 244/2012 and normative EN 15459:2008. Although economic input data utilized for calculating future costs are based on statistical predictions and not defi nite, most of studies in this regard are based on a deterministic system that do not consider any randomness of parameters in global cost calculations. This paper aims to utilize EU suggested methodology on a representative apartment building in Italian context in order to evaluate eff ects of uncertainties in assumed economical input data on calculation results. In this study, twenty two wall envelope technologies were taken as design variables for acquiring primary energy needs and performing LCC calculations. By analyzing time series of main fi nancial rates during recent years, their magnitude as well as marginal percentages were introduced and applied to the parameters by means of a of Monte Carlo based method; Then, amount of uncertainties for obtained results were quantifi ed by means of statistical indicators and variation of possible output around base case values were fi gured out. Moreover, infl uence of individual input as well as combination scenarios were studied in a sensitivity analysis. Among studied parameters, Rp (Product price development rate) was identifi ed as the most dominant stochastic parameter.