Sviluppo di una metodologia probabilistica per valutazioni LCC di interventi di retrofit di edifici / Development of a probabilistic methodology for LCC assessments of building retrofit measures

Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis in the field of buildings has been introduced at regulatory level in Europe by Directive 2010/31/EU on the energy performance of buildings. This established that Member States should assess their “cost-optimal levels” of minimum energy performance requirements considering the calculation method of standard EN 15459. However, in LCC analysis, results are heavily dependent on future trends for macroeconomic parameters (e.g. inflation rate, market interest rate, energy prices) and on the service life and costs of building components and their corresponding uncertainties. Since LCC methodologies in the field of buildings are considered as important decision supports of the design process, it is then necessary to assess and communicate the problem of these uncertainties properly; otherwise design options might be selected based on faulty assumptions. In this work a methodology for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for buildings LCC is developed. Through the application to a case study, its potential is showed, linked to the possibility of providing decision support during the design phase by investigating and comparing different energy efficiency measures.