A Novelty Detection approach to identify the occurrence of leakage in Smart Gas and Water Grids

In this paper, a novelty detection algorithm for the identification of leakages in smart water/gas grid contexts is proposed. It is based on two separate stages: the first deals with the creation of the statistical leakage-free model, whereas the second evaluates the eventual occurrence of leakage on the basis of the model likelihood. Up to the authors' knowledge, this approach has never been used in the application scenario of interest. A set of several features are extracted from the Almanac of Minutely Power Dataset, and a suboptimal selection is executed to determinate the best combination. The abnormal event (leakage) is induced by manipulating the consumption in the test set. A total of 10 background models are created, by employing both Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) and Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) under a comparative perspective, and each of them is adopted to detect 10 leakages, with random duration, length and starting time. Finally, the performance are evaluated in terms of Area Under Curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC). Obtained results are more than encouraging: the best average AUCs of 85.60% and 87.97% are achieved with HMM, at 1 minute resolution, for natural gas and water, respectively. Specifically, considering true detection rates (TDRs) of 100%, the natural gas exhibits an overall false detection rate (FDR) of 17.11%, and the water achieves an overall FDR of 13.79%.