A new and feasible model for predicting operative risk

Abstract: Background. Although the POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity) score can be used to calculate operative risk, its complexity makes its use unfeasible in the immediate clinical setting. The aim of this study was to create a new model, based on ASA status, to predict mortality. Methods. Data were collected in two hospitals. All types of surgery were included except for cardiac surgery and Caesarean delivery. Age, sex and preoperative information, including the presence of cardiocirculatory and/or lung disease, renal failure, diabetes mellitus, hepatic disease, cancer, Glasgow Coma Score, ASA grade, surgical diagnosis, severity of the procedure and type of surgery (elective, urgent or emergency), were recorded for each patient. The model was developed using a data set incorporating data from 1936 surgical patients, and validated using data from a further 1849 patients. Forward stepwise logistic regression was use...