Perpetual futures, first proposed by Shiller (1993), have only seen wide use in cryptocurrency markets. We examine the contract design and market microstructure differences for the behavior of Bitcoin quarterly and perpetual futures prices and assess the implications for market participants and policymakers. We find perpetual futures exhibit multiple “u-shaped” curves, seasonal effects, and opening effects despite lacking opening and closing hours. There is suggestive evidence of spillover effects between perpetual and quarterly futures contracts. We find quarterly futures offer cash-and-carry arbitrage opportunities, but similar to Hattori and Ishida (2021) these opportunities primarily exist during market dislocations.
Arbitrage, contract design, and market structure in Bitcoin futures markets / De Blasis, R.; Webb, A.. - In: THE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS. - ISSN 0270-7314. - 42:3(2022), pp. 492-524. [10.1002/fut.22305]
Arbitrage, contract design, and market structure in Bitcoin futures markets
De Blasis R.;
2022-01-01
Abstract
Perpetual futures, first proposed by Shiller (1993), have only seen wide use in cryptocurrency markets. We examine the contract design and market microstructure differences for the behavior of Bitcoin quarterly and perpetual futures prices and assess the implications for market participants and policymakers. We find perpetual futures exhibit multiple “u-shaped” curves, seasonal effects, and opening effects despite lacking opening and closing hours. There is suggestive evidence of spillover effects between perpetual and quarterly futures contracts. We find quarterly futures offer cash-and-carry arbitrage opportunities, but similar to Hattori and Ishida (2021) these opportunities primarily exist during market dislocations.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
