A decision support system for scenario analysis in energy refurbishment of residential buildings

The energy efficiency of buildings is a key condition in the implementation of national sustainability policies. Energy efficiency of the built heritage is usually achieved through energy contracts or renovation projects that are based on decisions often taken with limited knowledge and in short time frames. However, the collection of comprehensive and reliable technical information to support the decision process is a long and expensive activity. Approximate assessment methods based on stationary thermal models are usually adopted, often introducing unacceptable uncertainties for economically onerous contracts. Hence, it is important to develop tools that, by capitalizing on the operators’ experience, can provide support for fast and reliable assessments. The paper documents the development of a decision support system prototype for the management of energy refurbishment investments in the residential building sector that assists operators in the energy performance assessment, using a limited set of technical information. The system uses a Case Based paradigm enriched with probabilistic modelling to implement decision support within the corporate’s knowledge management framework.