A Model-Based Approach for the Long Term Planning of Distributed Energy Systems in the Energy Transition

Energy system models need to adapt to better represent the new challenges brought by a changing scenario regarding technologies development and policy making. The mixed integer linear programming based approach proposed in this study wishes to handle the impacts of these changes on potential investments in distributed energy systems, whose design is to be determined for a time horizon lasting several years with parameters that might change even substantially in such timespan. In order to test the approach, a scenario representing a residential district with high penetration of electricity production from non controllable sources (photovoltaic panels) is used as a test case. The investment decision under examination is when to possibly deploy a battery system to deal with the production surplus generated during the day by the mismatch in production and demand. While electricity can be fed into the grid by taking advantage of a feed-in tariff scheme, this could not be the most economically favorable approach due to the dropping costs of the Lithium-ion battery systems in the near future. Results show that for the case study under analysis investing into batteries appears not convenient in terms of overall costs, although the best alternative solution provided with storage systems is only slightly more expensive.